Wednesday, November 2, 2011

CM safe with divided Oppn

CM safe with divided Oppn

There is no threat to the Kiran Kumar Reddy government as long as the number of MLAs leaving the Congress does not cross 70, which as of now appears to be a remote possibility. There is also no substance in the hype created by the Telangana Rashtra Samiti, Telugu Desam and the YSR Congress that the government has lost majority in the House as there is no unity among these parties to jointly dislodge the government by way of a No-Confidence Motion.

The argument had been that the 29 Congress MLAs supporting Kadapa MP Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy, the 12 MLAs of the TRS, the five MLAs who have left the TD and the three Congress MLAs who have joined the TRS, would together pull the government down with support from an “unknown number” of MLAs from the ruling party. This argument seems a bit far-fetched. Even if it does prove to be a reality, the strength will not disturb the establishment unless the number of MLAs from the Congress crosses 70.

Sources said the composition of the House establishes a comfortable majority for the ruling combine comprising the Congress, Praja Rajyam, the Majlis and an Independent, who together have 182 MLAs in a House of 294. Also, the resignations of 26 Congress MLAs, one from the PR, nine TD rebels and 11 TRS MLAs are pending consideration with Speaker N. Manohar. Besides, 32 Telangana TD MLAs have also submitted resignations. It is unlikely that the Speaker will accept them as he had dismissed the earlier ones. Both the TRS and Mr Jagan Mohan Reddy’s MLAs want that a No-Confidence Motion be tabled by the TD. In such a scenario, they would vote against the government along with “unknown MLAs” from the ruling party. It is doubtful that the TD will fall for this.

The 29 MLAs supporting Mr Jagan Mohan Reddy do not want to meet the Governor and withdraw support, thus forcing the Governor to order a floor test by the CM. The MLAs fear that this would attract the “anti-defection law”, allowing the ruling party to approach the Speaker to disqualify them before the No-Trust Vote, like it happened in Karnataka. On the other hand, the TD is not prepared for by-polls or mid-term polls at present due to the TRS influence in Telangana and Mr Jagan Mohan Reddy’s influence in the Seemandhra region.